A coffee farmer picks fresh coffee berries in Colombia’s coffee producing zone, which is suffering the effects of climate change.
Whether you like it frothy, skinny, straight or short,
coffee lovers around the world face a wake-up call as the perfect storm brews
for their favorite drink. For the first time, researchers have mapped
suitability for Arabica coffee – the most popular, high-quality gourmet variety
with a 70 percent global market share – to see how it will cope in 2050.
The
results shows that coffee, which ranks just after oil in its value among traded
commodities and is grown in more than 60 tropical countries – with around 400
million cups sipped at each year – will be significantly hit by temperatures
above two degrees Celsius and rainfall changes. Production must shift to cooler
areas to survive, warn authors – which could spark higher prices and reduced
supply for the prized drink. “For the first time, we’ve collected enough
regional data to show that coffee farmers must compensate for higher
temperatures to survive,” said Dr. Peter Laderach, co-author of the report and
senior climate change specialist for the global CGIAR Research Program on
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), led by the
Colombia-based International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).
Major
producers – Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia – together producing 65% of
the global market share, are set to experience severe losses if adaptation
measures are not taken, authors warn. Taking a hike… uphill inter-cropping with
trees to provide shade, or moving to higher elevations where it is cooler, can
compensate for higher temperatures by two to three degrees, say authors.
Generally, coffee will need to move between 300 to 500 meters further above sea
level depending on location to survive. That’s feasible in Ethiopia or Kenya
along the Great Rift Valley, where Coffee Arabica originated and elevations
reach 2,400 meters above sea level.
But in Brazil for example – the world’s
largest coffee producer and exporter, accounting for around a third of global
trade – is already cultivated at low elevations and can’t shift further
upwards. “What’s more, Brazil’s highly mechanized, commercial coffee production
is not suitable for inter-cropping with trees, which could provide shade and
bring temperatures down,” said Laderach. “That could mean shifting production
east – from Central America to eastern Africa and the Asia-Pacific, if
strategies are not put in place to adapt,” he added. Brazil can expect whopping
25 percent losses to current production if adaptation strategies and measures
are not taken, authors warn. Nicaragua, El Salvador and Mexico all face slashes
in their production and severe economic impacts are expected in Mesoamerica,
where Arabica is an important export. Dr. Tim Schilling, executive director of
the World Coffee Research program, funded and driven by the global coffee
industry and a partner of CIAT, responding to results said: “A 25 percent
reduction in output from Brazil will have tremendous, transformation impact
across the entire coffee sector. Net results will be less global supply and
increased coffee prices for roasters and consumers.”
Climate change threatens global coffee supply.
Generally, the global study shows that areas between 600 and
1,900 meters above sea level will be best suited to Arabica coffee production,
though this depends on many other factors. But just moving coffee upwards may
not always be feasible. Indonesia, one of the top-four producing countries, is
expected to see the area suitable for producing Arabica slashed by up to 37
percent. Production could shift to higher elevations, but these typically
forested, natural reserve areas are home to indigenous communities and
bio-diverse environments.
A shift east for Arabica coffee production would be a
game-changer for the entire sector, noted Schilling. But whether it will happen is not obvious, he
added. “There is competition for land among other cash crops in Indonesia and
the Pacific, and it is unknown whether Africa can build the necessary capacity
in terms of politics, business climate, supporting institutions and
infrastructure,” he said. “For me, it all says brace yourselves for higher
prices,” said Schilling. “The only glimmer on the horizon is the ability to
change the coffee plant so that it produces decent coffee and yields under a
climate-constrained environment,” he added.
A coffee farm in Colombia’s coffee producing zone in Risaralda. The region is suffering the effects of climate change on the crop.
Coffee takes around five years to become established and
bear fruit. That’s a long-term investment for the 25 million farmers, most of
them smallholders, who depend on coffee for their livelihoods. This research
enables scientists to evaluate new coffee hybrids to perform under a wide range
of production environments – including those projected in future. “We expect to
know more about how the genetics of coffee can be used to buy more time,” said
Schilling. Information gained by breeders will be invaluable for the
development of new, climate-resilient varieties tailored to individual climatic
zones. But research is only one piece of the puzzle. “We need to design
adaptation strategies to protect the coffee industry and smallholder farmers
that supply it now,” stressed Laderach. “For that to happen, global supply
chain actors along the coffee value chain need to collaborate and fund
adaptation efforts.” That’s already happening in Nicaragua.
In 2013, adaptation strategies developed by CIAT and
partners were included in the country’s national plan, triggering US$10 million
in support for the Nicaraguan government to implement them. “Coffee farmers can
already feel the heat. It’s time to wake up,” said Laderach. “Or coffee farmers
will be forced to find alternatives,” he said.
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